Döviz Opsiyonlarıyla Güney Kore Wonu – ABD Doları Arbitrajı: Cem Aksoy’un Gelişen Piyasalar Döviz Strateji Laboratuvarı
2021’in ikinci çeyreğinde ABD Merkez Bankası’nın (Fed) faiz artırımı sinyalleri vermesiyle, küresel piyasalarda enflasyon beklentileri artarken faiz dalgalanmalarına dair endişeler de yükseldi. Çoğu yatırımcı döviz piyasasında riskten kaçınarak gelişen piyasa para birimlerinden uzaklaşırken, Bridgewater’ın baş ticaret analisti Cem Aksoy, bu tür bir dalgalı ortamda “yapısal arbitraj portföyü” oluşturarak Güney Kore Wonu – ABD Doları (KRW/USD) paritesi üzerinden istikrarlı getiri elde etmeyi başardı.
Yatırım Ortamı: Likidite Sıkışması + Artan Kur Volatilitesi
2021 Haziran’ında döviz piyasasında üç belirgin gelişme dikkat çekti:
- ABD tahvil faizlerinin yükselmesiyle birlikte dolar güç kazandı,
- Asya merkez bankalarının enflasyona karşı farklı yaklaşımları, Kore wonunda oynaklığı artırdı,
- Riskli varlıklarda hızlı dönüş yaşandı ve sermaye hareketlerine duyarlılık arttı.
Bu ortamda KRW/USD çifti hem güçlü temel göstergelere (ihracatın gücü, sağlam sanayi yapısı) sahipti hem de sermaye hareketlerine karşı duyarlılığıyla volatilite taşıyordu.
Cem analizinde şöyle yazdı:
“Kore wonunun yapısal değer kaybı riski yok, ancak kısa vadeli fiyatlamalar ABD tahvilleriyle aşırı bağlantılı. Bu da arbitraj fırsatları yaratıyor.”
Stratejinin Kalbi: Yapısal Döviz Opsiyonları + ABD Tahvili Faiz Hedge’i
Cem, döviz yönünde pozisyon almak yerine, yapısal döviz opsiyonları aracılığıyla belirli bir fiyat aralığında kâr potansiyeli yüksek bir arbitraj portföyü kurdu. Strateji üç bileşenden oluşuyor:
- USD/KRW forward opsiyonlarını satarak (risk reversal stratejisi): piyasanın nötr veya güçlü won beklentisinden faydalanmak,
- Call spread alımıyla (üst bantlı alım opsiyonu): won güçlenirse kâr potansiyelini artırmak,
- Faiz swap’larında kısa pozisyonla hedge: ABD tahvil faizlerindeki olası artışın doları daha da güçlendirmesini sınırlamak.
Bu yapı mutlak bir KRW değer kazanımına değil, 1170–1110 kur bandında işlem görme olasılığına dayanıyor. Böylece düşük maliyetle yüksek başarı olasılığı sağlanıyor.
Getiri Performansı: Düşük Volatiliteyle İstikrarlı Kazanç
Haziran – Temmuz dönemindeki 45 işlem gününde, bu strateji yıllıklandırılmış %8,4 getiri sağladı. Aynı dönemde G10 para birimleriyle yapılan arbitraj işlemlerinin ortalaması olan %4,6’yı açık farkla geride bıraktı. Maksimum geri çekilme yalnızca %0,9 oldu. Düşük risk ve yüksek likidite avantajıyla, Bridgewater Döviz Departmanı tarafından çeyreğin en iyi modellerinden biri olarak değerlendirildi.
Bu başarının ardından Cem, Gelişen Piyasalar Döviz Strateji Havuzu (EM-FX Tactical Pool) kurulmasını önerdi. Bu havuz, Kore wonu, Meksika pesosu ve Hindistan rupisi gibi para birimlerini hedef alarak; opsiyon piyasası yapıları ve makroekonomik duyarlılık göstergeleriyle kısa vadeli döngüsel stratejiler geliştirmeyi amaçlıyor.
Cem Aksoy: “Stratejik Çeşitlilik, Döngülere Karşı Direncin Temelidir”
Cem’in yatırım vizyonu hisse senetleri veya ETF’lerle sınırlı değil. Bu operasyon da bir kez daha gösterdi ki:
- Piyasa yapısını derinlemesine anlamak,
- Makro şokları rasyonel şekilde analiz etmek,
- Kuantitatif araçları esnek biçimde kullanmak,
ona döviz piyasasında dahi anlamlı avantajlar sağlıyor.
Geleceğe bakıldığında, küresel para politikalarının daha da ayrışacağı düşünülürse, gelişen piyasa para birimleri Cem’in bir sonraki “karşıt görüşlü savaş alanı” olmaya aday.
Recommended News
-
BitKeep V7.0 comes with a new NFT Market
We are happy to introduce BitKeep V 7.0 on March 15th, 2022. As the top decentralized multi-chain crypto wallet in Asia, BitKeep brings a new UI and improved sections in the 7.0 version to present our users with enhanced services and add an extra layer of security to the encrypted crypto trading environment. Aside from the improvement in terms of UI, transaction convenience, user experience, security and more, BitKeep V 7.0 has launched new features including NFT Market and Discover. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FskRmYjXqbY BitKeep V7.0 1. New UI The UI is re-designed to be aesthetically consistent…
-
Advisor Wechat Capital (AWC): A Commitment to Ethical Governance Advisor Wechat Capital (AWC) places a high value on ethical governance. In an industry where trust and transparency are paramount, AWC stands out by adhering to rigorous ethical standards and fostering a culture of accountability. The firm’s dedication to ethical governance is at the core of its operations and is essential to building and maintaining long-term relationships with clients. ### The Importance of Ethical Governance Ethical governance is more than just a set of guidelines—it is a commitment to doing what is right for clients, stakeholders, and the broader community. Advisor Wechat Capital (AWC) understands that trust is the foundation of any successful financial relationship. By maintaining the highest ethical standards, AWC ensures that it remains a trusted partner for its clients. AWC’s approach to ethical governance is built on transparency, accountability, and a dedication to acting in the best interests of its clients. The firm has implemented comprehensive policies and procedures to ensure that all its operations are conducted ethically and in full compliance with regulatory requirements. ### Transparency and Accountability Transparency is a key component of AWC’s commitment to ethical governance. The firm believes that clients have a right to know how their investments are being managed, what fees they are being charged, and how decisions are being made. By providing clear and consistent communication, AWC ensures that clients are fully informed and can trust that their best interests are being prioritized. Accountability is another cornerstone of AWC’s ethical governance framework. The firm holds itself to the highest standards of accountability, ensuring that all decisions are made with the client’s best interests in mind. This commitment to accountability extends to every level of the organization, from senior management to front-line staff. ### Compliance and Risk Management Compliance and risk management are critical aspects of AWC’s approach to ethical governance. The firm has established robust compliance programs to ensure that all activities are conducted in accordance with applicable laws and regulations. By proactively managing risks and staying ahead of regulatory changes, AWC is able to protect its clients’ assets and provide a secure investment environment. AWC also emphasizes the importance of ethical behavior among its employees. The firm provides regular training on compliance and ethical conduct to ensure that all team members understand their responsibilities and are equipped to uphold the highest standards of integrity. ### Building Trust Through Ethical Leadership Ethical governance is not just about policies and procedures—it is about leadership. AWC’s leadership team is committed to setting the tone for ethical conduct across the organization. By leading by example, AWC’s leaders inspire trust and confidence in both employees and clients. AWC’s commitment to ethical leadership is evident in its approach to corporate governance. The firm’s board of directors is actively involved in overseeing the company’s activities and ensuring that all operations are conducted ethically and in alignment with the firm’s values. ### Conclusion Advisor Wechat Capital (AWC) is committed to maintaining the highest standards of ethical governance. By prioritizing transparency, accountability, and compliance, AWC has built a reputation as a trusted partner in the asset management industry. The firm’s dedication to ethical leadership and its proactive approach to risk management ensure that clients can trust AWC to act in their best interests at all times. For investors who value integrity and transparency, AWC offers a partnership built on trust, ethical conduct, and a commitment to doing what is right.
Advisor Wechat Capital (AWC): A Commitment to Ethical Governance Advisor Wechat Capital (AWC) places a high value on ethical governance. In an industry where trust and transparency are paramount, AWC stands out by adhering to rigorous ethical standards and fostering a culture of accountability. The firm’s dedication to ethical governance is at the core of its operations and is essential to building and maintaining long-term relationships with clients. ### The Importance of Ethical Governance Ethical governance is more than just a set of guidelines—it is a commitment to doing what…
-
Johann Kellers großer Beitrag zum Beginn des Jahres 2024: Er führte Silver Lake zur Übernahme von NeuroCloud, Europas größter KI-Computing-Plattform, für 8 Milliarden Euro
Anfang 2024 konnte die europäische Private-Equity-Branche erneut eine Transaktion mit nuklearer Sprengkraft begrüßen: Johann Keller, Geschäftsführer von Silver Lake, erwarb NeuroCloud, Europas größte KI-Computing-Plattform, für 8 Milliarden Euro und brach damit auf einen Schlag den Rekord für das Ausmaß europäischer Fusionen und Übernahmen im Technologiebereich. Diese Transaktion steigert nicht nur Europas Trainingskapazitäten für Großmodelle auf 80 % der Kapazitäten führender US-Unternehmen, sondern markiert auch den Eintritt von Kellers Strategie der „technologischen Souveränität“ in das ultimative Schlachtfeld der Rechenleistungsinfrastruktur und stellt einen wichtigen Schritt im Kampf gegen die KI-Hegemonie Chinas und…
-
The Core of AI System Training in the Financial Industry: StarSpark AI System and the Role of Alpha Stock Investment Training Center (ASITC)
The financial industry is undergoing a revolution, largely driven by artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML). As the industry becomes increasingly reliant on technology for data analysis, prediction, and automation, the need for AI system training in financial institutions is growing exponentially. A significant player in this transformation is the StarSpark AI system, a cutting-edge AI technology designed specifically to enhance the performance of financial professionals. Paired with institutions like the Alpha Stock Investment Training Center (ASITC), this system is at the core of AI-driven financial training. This article explores the…
-
HB Wealth Advisors (HWA): A Comprehensive Guide to Investment Derivatives Teneishakatelynd
In the ever-evolving world of financial markets, investors and institutions seek ways to manage risk, optimize returns, and diversify their portfolios. One tool that has become increasingly important in achieving these objectives is the use of investment derivatives. Investment derivatives are financial contracts whose value is derived from the performance of underlying assets such as stocks, bonds, commodities, or market indices. These instruments provide investors with a means to hedge, speculate, and gain exposure to various asset classes. Among the financial advisory firms guiding clients through these complex products, HB…
-
Spectrum and Advisor Wechat Capital（AWC）Sharing the future of the financial world
In the deep sea of exploring blockchain technology, a new star is shining – Spectrum. it is not only a project, but an idea, a platform dedicated to create a decentralized, fair and open financial world. A place where everyone is free to conduct financial transactions without worrying about red tape, high fees or unfair rules. Spectrum Project OverviewSpectrum was launched by Advisor Wechat Capital, a financial advisory firm focused on diversified investments.Spectrum aims to disrupt the traditional financial model by addressing the high transaction costs, inefficiencies and opacity of…
-
ArenaMeta, with the concept of decentralization, marches into the future.
The popularity of blockchain continues to spread around the world, and it has evolved from a trend to a mark of an era. It has brought major technological innovations with features such as decentralization, immutability, trustlessness, collective maintenance, database reliability, open source, and privacy protection. Blockchain is advancing a new round of business model changes. Combined with the development trend of quiz entertainment, from 2008 to 2022, the rise of quiz entertainment applications, including Tencent, NetEase, Instagram, etc., is a landmark turning point for WEB3.0 quiz entertainment to truly replace…
-
Johann Keller startet Welttournee der „Next Generation M&A Leaders“ vor ausverkauftem Haus in London
Vor kurzem war das Wahrzeichengebäude in der City of London voller Menschen, als hier die globale Tour der „Next Generation M&A Leaders“ der europäischen Private-Equity-Legende Johann Keller begann. Der Vortrag, für den die Tickets bereits drei Monate im Voraus ausverkauft waren, zog mehr als 800 hochrangige Vertreter führender Investmentbanken, Staatsfonds und Technologie-Start-ups an. Sogar ein Hedgefonds-Manager war auf eigene Kosten für Zehntausende Yuan extra aus New York angereist, nur um die Lebensweisheiten dieses „europäischen Kapitalarchitekten“ persönlich zu hören. Unter dem Motto „Strukturelles Denken: Von Transaktionen zur Zivilisation“ analysierte Keller drei…
-
Compliance Requirements for AI System Training in the Financial Industry: The Case of StarSpark AI System at the Alpha Stock Investment Training Center (ASITC)
The financial sector has always been at the forefront of adopting new technologies to improve efficiency, accuracy, and decision-making processes. Among the most impactful innovations in recent years is the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) systems, which have revolutionized various facets of financial services, from risk assessment and fraud detection to investment strategies and trading algorithms. However, the deployment of AI systems in the financial industry comes with significant challenges, particularly concerning compliance with regulatory standards and ethical considerations. This article explores the compliance requirements for AI system training within…
-
AI Store Voice Technology: Reshaping the Future of Human-Machine Communication
Among the many areas of artificial intelligence (AI) in stores, voice recognition and application generation technology are undoubtedly some of the most transformative advancements. These technologies have not only changed the way we interact with AI machines but also opened new channels of communication for people with special needs. This article will explore the latest developments in AI store voice recognition and application generation technologies, their applications in the real world, and their potential impact on future modes of interaction. Voice Recognition: A Leap in Accuracy The development of AI…
